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Happy birthday |
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Happy birthday |
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In the past few days I've read around sixty exam papers dealing with the question of restorative versus retributive justice. Of these, I'd guess around twenty start off with a sentence like "All over the world, crime rates are soaring." This piqued my curiosity. All of these students are studying social sciences, so we might expect them to know that in most developed countries, crime rates, while continually fluctuating, have in general fallen over the last two decades (crime rates in Third World countries vary wildly because there are so many factors involved, from endemic corruption to civil war). I am not saying that this is something to be jubilant about: the US homicide rate is still higher than it was in 1960 while in some European countries, crime in general has fallen but violent crime has risen. In Japan, street crime is now widespread; a common scenario is for an elderly person to approach a group of street-toughs to ask for directions, only to find that they give him the wrong directions. Moreover, reasons for the fall are obscure; even decreased lead levels in the atmosphere have been credited. But whatever the reasons, one thing is clear: crime rates are not soaring. The interesting part is why people believe that they are. The simplest explanation is just that it takes a while for information to spread; by the time most people have noticed the fall in crime, crime will probably have started rising again. However, I shall lay Occam's razor to one side for a moment in order to contemplate another hypothesis, which I call the MOMS syndrome, MOMS here standing for "malaise of modern society". The idea that crime is increasing is attractive not just because for a while it did increase, but because increasing crime is part of the MOMS: modern society has a high crime rate because modern society is fundamentally flawed. You can choose one or more of many aspects of the malaise to explain crime: decline in religious belief, rampant consumerism, single mothers … take your pick. Any of these can be pulled in to say why, for about thirty years, crime rose to almost nineteenth-century levels. Ah yes, that's the problem. Take a look at these figures [Source], which give the murder rate in Britain (per 100,000 per year averaged by decade):
(Figures for the USA are similar but higher overall, and have a spike around 1920–1930 because of prohibition.) The rise in crime in the late twentieth century now looks more like a normalisation. Furthermore, when we look at crime on the basis of centuries rather than decades, crime is not soaring but plummeting (if you can talk about something plummeting over centuries). As I mentioned in a previous entry, the murder rate in thirteenth-century England was 20 per 100,000, which is around four times what it was in 1700 and fourteen times the last peak of 1990. Whatever disadvantages modernity may have brought in its wake, crime is not one of them. |
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Two decades ago, a book came out that put nanotechnology in the public gaze and spawned quite a few science fiction novels: Eric Drexler's Engines of Creation. After telling us about the wonderful things we could do with nanotechnology, Drexler ends with a cautionary note: if we're not careful we could create a self-replicating nano-bot that could eat everything in the world, replacing it with copies of itself. This is known as the grey goo scenario. While grey goo is still a far-off threat, I can see an analogous scenario unfolding on the Web. An increasing amount of cyberspace is taken up by Web 2.0 applications: Live Journal, Twitter, MySpace, Facebook, YouTube, Bebo, Quechup, Flickr ... the list is endless. Not only is much of the "content" in these services devoid of real content, it is also self-replicating, just like grey goo. For example, I have accounts on Facebook, Twitter and of course LJ. I have arranged things so that anything I write on Twitter or LJ appears on my Facebook page (and thus on the home pages of any of my Facebook friends). I was about to also have my tweets appear on LJ, as many of my friends do, but then realised that they would then appear twice on Facebook: once as a Twitter feed and then again as a LJ feed. Now imagine an app that posts your Facebook updates to Twitter (after cutting them up into 148-character chunks). If no one has written it yet, someone soon will. So then you create an infinite loop, drowning all of your webspaces in a sea of tweets. Now consider that someone is friends with you on Facebook, following you on Twitter, your minion on Bebo or whatever. They get all this garbage, of course. Normally what will happen then is that they'll block you, defriend you and generally curse your name, and it stops there. But consider what happens if they are such a fan of yours that they have an application which automatically retweets your tweets, shares your Facebook posts and so forth. I don't know if such an application exists, but like I said, if no one has written it, someone soon will. No web application is so useless that no one will design it—that's what the spirit of Web 2.0 is all about. While your lethal tweet is racing around your own social sites, it is periodically cloning itself onto your friends' sites and thence throughout the web. Within a short period of time, the whole of the web could be full of a hideous mashup of meaningless tweets. |
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"The universe is more prosperous and abundant than you can imagine." Well of course. It's the universe, and as such contains all the abundance that exists. I mean if you were to own the universe, you'd be pretty damned rich. |
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Here is a wonderful paragraph that wouldn't have been written a few years ago: I blog about twitter and tweet about blogging. Sometimes I blog about tweeting about blogging and tweet about blogging about twitter. |
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Note: This post will only be of interest to people in academia and will probably bore my normal readers. So if you are normal, don't read this. Really. Go and follow me on Twitter or something. Ever since I started grading essays (and that was a looong time ago, boys and girls), I had assumed, along with most of my colleagues, that if you were going to break down the way you gave grades, rather than just holding the paper up to the light and saying "Hmmm, looks like a B+," it would be along the following lines:
What I was ignoring was that argument and organisation are pretty much inseparable. You can separate them in theory, as I demonstrated above, but in practice they usually go together, or at least they do in ENG 101. I occasionally give a paper "D" for argument and "A" for organisation, but that's nearly always because the paper is off-topic or factually inaccurate; I hardly ever do the reverse, because a paper which is disorganised is not well-argued. Another problem with dealing with organisation on its own is that you end up doling out a lot of average-to-high grades because it is easy for students, once they've learnt the basics, to do cookie-cutter organisation. They know what teachers want, and it's easy to provide it. Thesis statement? Check. Some crap to lead into the thesis statement? Check. Paragraphs with one main idea? Check. Topic sentences? Check. This method might not get you an "A" for organisation, but it will guarantee you a "B". So when there is a discrepancy between the grades for argument and organisation, it is often because the student is simply writing to a formula. It seems, then, that it is best to treat argument and organisation as one entity for the purposes of grading. This leaves us with language, which is worth a band to itself, and "other stuff", some of which could go in with language (e.g. punctuation) and most of which is to do with using sources, so we could have the following:
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Always ready to panic over some change in British society, the Daily Telegraph reports on the alarming trend of schools replacing the traditional school tie with—can you believe it?—clip-ons. For a change, I agree with the Telegraph: this is utterly absurd. Two reasons are given by school heads. The first is that ties often "look scruffy as pupils wear fat knots or short tails as part of the latest fashion craze." True enough, except that (a) pupils have always been doing this, so there's nothing "latest" about it, and (b) if a fifteen-year-old boy doesn't look scruffy, that is when you should start worrying. The lads with perfectly pressed shirts who spend half an hour in the toilets slicking back their hair are the ones you should keep an eye on; they probably have a dozen third-years selling skunk for them. The second and more pressing reason is that ties can violate health and safety regulations. I kid you not: they can get caught in machinery, and "concerns have been raised over children pulling them too tight for a joke." Ah yes, I remember how we used to pull our chums ties until their faces went blue and their eyes popped out—hilarious it was. It seems that, like other jolly old traditions such as sodomy with a Curly Wurly, this is unacceptable to namby-pamby progressive educators. Now you might think the solution was simple: instruct pupils to remove their ties while operating lathes (not something they need to do very often, unless the curriculum has got considerably less academic since I left school) and devise a suitable punishment for those who strangle their classmates. Putting their heads in a plastic bag for a while should do the trick. But no, we need to live in a Britain Where Bad Things Do Not Happen, so clip-ons are the obvious solution: safe, easy to use … and totally wanky. I mean it was bad enough having to wear a school tie, but a clip-on school tie? A clip-on school tie that sends a clear message to every bully within eye-shot: "Rip me off, throw me in the air, then trample me underfoot"? Have a heart. Of course this begs the question of why, in the twenty-first century, any schools would want their pupils to wear ties. Ties first became fashionable in the 1630s (thanks to Croatian mercenaries, hence the word "Cravat"). They've had their day. If we're going to insist on ties, we may as well have britches and shoes with big buckles. The only reason why school ties didn't die out a few decades ago is Harry Potter. Harry Potter can also be blamed for another disturbing trend in schools: the revival of the house system. This originated in private schools (which we Brits confusingly call "public schools") and was meant fairly literally: boys were incarcerated in large houses where they would sleep, study and engage in sado-masochistic homosexual behaviour. This naturally supported good-natured competition, fair play and grievous bodily harm, as boys from rival houses would while away the summer afternoons clubbing each other with cricket bats. When state education got going, the more pretentious grammar schools emulated this system, even though there were no actual houses. When I was a lad, we had houses, but they were really just an attempt to find names catchier than 3A or 5C (we had Abbey, Castle and Quarry, named after local landmarks). No one had any doubts that the system was a feeble attempt to imitate the world of Tom Brown's Schooldays, a world that had been dealt a death blow by WWI and by the 1960s was just hanging on in a coma. But then along came Harry Potter, and now, the same Telegraph article reports, the Schoolwear Association notes that an increasing number of schools are adopting the house system and "ordering ties, polo shirts and scarves in house colours to differentiate between pupils" (emphasis mine). This, my dear readers, is madness. It won't be like Gryffindor and Hufflepuff; it'll be like the Sharks and the Jets or the Crips and the Bloods. |
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There is a phenomenon in anthropology known as Dunbar's number, after its creator, Robin Dunbar, who speculated that there was a correlation between neocortex size and the maximum number of regular social contacts that a primate could maintain. Since social contact in primates is maintained primarily by grooming, I would have thought the crucial variable would be manual dexterity rather than neocortex size, but then I'm not a primatologist, so what do I know? Anyway, the idea caught on like lice on an ungroomed primate, and Dunbar proposed a number for humans based on the data from other primates. This number is 150, which sounds like a reasonable estimate. I mean, could you handle more than 150 friends on Live Journal, Facebook or whatever? (This, by the way, is the reason why so many IT movers and shakers are interested in Dunbar). There again, could you handle more than 100? There's the problem: Dunbar's number is actually 148 with a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230. So we can predict with a fair degree of confidence that if a group grows to have a hundred members, it will either start to experience problems cohering and start to fragment, or continue growing up to as much as double its current size. In other words, Dunbar's number tells us nothing that common sense doesn't. Meanwhile, other anthropologists have come up with some different numbers: Russell Bernard and Peter Killworth reckon the maximum could be a hefty 230 or 290 (depending on whether you take the median or the mean). But, as Wikipedia notes, "the Bernard-Killworth number has not been popularized as widely as Dunbar's," despite its being replicated in a variety of studies. To explain this, I propose Dunbar's Law: "Where there are two hypotheses to explain the same data, the one with the cooler name will be adopted." "Dunbar's number" beats "the Bernard-Killworth number" by sheer assonance. |
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This is something I posted on my course website (I kept the typo because it seemed appropriate). I've just noticed how common fathers, or men taking a father role, are in female action films and TV series. Check this out: * Lara Croft and her father (which was what prompted me to think about this, since I was watching Tomb Raider) What I find interesting is that the protagonist's father is either dead or replaced by a surrogate father. What do you think? |
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Happy birthday |
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Some questions I have not yet seen on the Chicago Manual of Style Q&A page:
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While reading drafts, it occurred to me that no matter how hard I try, there are some messages that don't seem to be getting across. So just to make things absolutely clear ... 1. Use the spell-checker. If it puts a wiggly red line under a word, it doesn't automatically mean that the word is wrong (e.g. it will probably indicate "Mulan" as a spelling mistake) but it is worth looking carefully at it. [in a later post] Here are some other things I keep saying. Or if I didn't say them several times before, I should have done. 1. Titles of complete works (books, journals, newspapers, films, TV series) go in italics. Titles of a part of a work (chapter in a book, article in a journal, episode in a TV series) go in quotation marks. Thus in class we watched "The Deliverer", which was an episode of Xena: Warrior Princess. |
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"The Housers are doing the work of Tom Wolfe, creating tapestries of modern times as detailed as those of Balzac or Dickens. At least, I assume that's true. Instead of reading those guys, I've been in Liberty City stealing tanks" - Matt Selmen. |
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Thanks to states rights, the USA is famous for idiosyncratic sexual legislation. In this most diverse of countries, it is as though only a state line separates Calvin's Geneva from Gomorrah. The latest strangeness come from Massachusetts, where a bill has been proposed which would make it illegal for anyone with a disability, or over the age of sixty, to pose nude. Since the law applies not only to photography and film, but to "representation or reproduction in any visual material" we may presume that pictures like this would be impounded in the unspellable state. The purpose of this legislation is supposedly to "protect" elders and people with disabilities from predators like Gustav Klimt. Since "elders" includes anyone over sixty (which, as various commentators have pointed out, includes such hotties as Meryl Streep and Richard Gere) and a "disability" can include almost anything, we are talking about a pretty large section of the population (in fact, if it had been Florida rather than Massachusetts, it might have been the majority). Obviously, this is nothing to do with protecting people. Sylvester Stallone does not need protecting. Clint Eastwood does not need protecting (though I don't think he's been in any sex scenes since he turned 70). Anthony "Human Stain" Hopkins doesn't need protecting, and Jack Nicholson certainly does not need protecting, though it is possible that the days when society needed protecting from him are finally over. Oh, and since blindness and deafness are disabilities, are we to believe that the law is also designed to protect people like Stevie Wonder or Marlee Matlin? (Stevie will turn sixty next year, so he'll need double protection.) Of course, treating elders as minors and the physically disabled as mentally deficient is nothing about protecting anyone. It's about some people gong "Eeewww, that's icky!" and getting upset when others do not share their reaction. |
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While reading around on the "none is" vs. "none are" controversy from my last post, I came across a rather nice blog called Motivated Grammar. It's like a militant version of Language Log, as is clear from its subtitle, "Prescriptivism Must Die!" As you can see, it's not just the prescriptivists who get worked up about language. Now I have done my share of bashing prescriptivists. My book on how to write a term paper has a page complaining about "pseudo-rules" (or what Language Log's Mark Liberman more entertainingly calls "Zombie rules"). When it comes to split infinitives, sentence-final prepositions or singular "they", I'm up there with the best of the descriptivists. On the other hand, I often criticise people's usage, usually on the grounds that I just happen not to like it, which shows that when push comes to shove, I can be as prescriptive as Strunk. Then there's the fact that I teach English in a university, which means I'm paid to be prescriptive: a large and tedious part of my job is highlighting grammatical and stylistic infelicities in student essays. Is this another case of my characteristic fence-sitting, or is it possible to be both a descriptive and a prescriptive linguist without committing a savage hypocrisy? I would say, "Yes, you can too." In fact, I would argue that descriptive linguistics implies prescriptive linguistics. Take, for example, those most descriptive of linguists, sociolinguists. Describing the language of a certain speech-community in minute detail is what they are happiest doing (which is why generativists always tended to look down on them). A sociolinguist might spend the better part of their life conducting a longitudinal survey of vowel-change in Asian communities in Yorkshire. You can't get more descriptive than that, but ironically, what emerges at the end is a set of prescriptive rules for that speech community; they say, in effect, "If you want to talk like a Bradford-born Indian, this is how you do it." The same should be true of the rules we normally associate with prescriptive grammar—the kind of grammar we were taught in school, in other words. Someone should study the speech community the students are trying to enter (or that we are trying to force them to enter); in the case of university English courses, this would be the academic community. Then, having discovered what is acceptable or typical usage in that community as it actually exists in the twenty-first century, we could prescribe some rules for neophytes. Fortunately, this has already been done; because of their accessibility, academics are some of the most studied language-users around. After all, why risk getting mugged on the street while taping the conversations of crack-dealers when you can do corpus analysis of academic journals in the comfort of your own home? With all this study of academic discourse, why is it that there is still a mismatch between what high school and university instructors teach and real English? A possibility is that academics themselves, as a speech community, are as removed from Standard English as are drug-dealers. In some cases, this is true; some academic disciplines have their own peculiar ways of writing and talking but this generally isn't the kind of thing they teach in composition classes; in fact, anyone who taught a bunch of kids fresh out of high school to write like Theorists (with a capital "T") should be shot. (See, I can be very prescriptive on occasion.) A more common problem among English instructors is that when trying to establish what is acceptable grammar and good style, they often only consult other English instructors. People teaching Composition 101 often get their ideas about writing from composition textbooks, and these are often written by people who have done the same, following a chain going back to the grammarians who invented those silly rules about not splitting infinitives. Of course, the ideal English essay has not remained preserved in nineteenth-century amber; rather, it has evolved, but in the odd kind of way that wildlife evolves in inaccessible places like Madagascar, so that the kind of essays you see on sites like allfreeessays.com bear as close a resemblance to any other kind of academic writing as a lemur does to a chimp. |
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[Did you notice that of the six words in the title, five of them begin with an "A"? Awesome assonance!] Much as I am fond of atheists and generally think the world needs more of them, I take issue with evangelical atheists who would deny agnostics the chance to sit on the theological fence. From their point of view, an agnostic is either an atheist who won't 'fess up, or an Anglican who can't be bothered to go to church. The argument runs something like this: we do not believe in leprechauns because there is no strong evidence for their existence; there is no strong evidence for the existence of God; therefore, we should not believe in God. To be an agnostic is like saying "Well, I don't actually disbelieve in leprechauns." The logic of the leprechaun is compelling. The set of objects which can be imagined is substantially larger than the set of objects that actually exist, so all things being equal, we assume that imagined objects are imaginary. Unless you've actually seen a leprechaun with a pot of gold and all, you don't just fail to believe in leprechauns, you believe in the non-existence of leprechauns. Theists, and even many agnostics, try to tackle the leprechaun analogy by saying that there are reasons for at least suspecting the existence of a god or gods which do not apply in the case of leprechauns. Unfortunately, the reasons proposed are not usually very good: there are arguments from personal experience, which are compelling for the person concerned but not for anyone else, arguments of the "God of the gaps" variety ("Science still hasn't explained why bread always falls with the buttered side down") and of course the argumentum ad populum that billions of people believe in God, so there has to be something in it. Nevertheless, the leprechaun analogy has never struck me as being particularly convincing, and today while dozing in my office, I realised why. To believe in leprechauns is to make a statement to the effect that there exists some x such that x is a leprechaun. To believe in God, on the other hand, is making a statement about the universe. OK, the statement implies that there exists some x such that x is a god, but that isn't the primary claim. The primary claim varies according to your particular theology, but to keep matters simple, let's stick with the standard Abrahamic view of God. In this case, the primary claim is that the universe is the creation of some entity which pre-exists it. Now this is a very different kind of a claim from the claim that leprechauns exist. There is an infinite number of things that could possibly exist, which makes a lot of competition for leprechauns. On the other hand, there is (probably) only one universe, and only two possibilities for its existence: it was either created or it wasn't. (At a pinch I could allow three possibilities: it was created, it always existed or it just happened.) In the absence of evidence pointing in either direction, it makes no more sense to say that the universe wasn't created than to say that it was. We should not let the stupidity of some of the arguments for its created status put us off; the only reason there aren't stupid arguments for the uncreated nature of the universe is that few people see the need to argue for this notion. We can apply similar arguments to alternative theologies such as pantheism, panentheism and so forth. Whatever their merits or demerits, none of them are in the same class as the leprechaun argument. (An exception might be the type of paganism that asserts the existence of gods as physical or quasi-physical entities.) All of this implies that agnosticism is neither wishy-washy atheism nor closet theism and is in fact more a statement about the nature of the question we are asking than it is an answer to it. |
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My ENG 101 course is getting unbelievably nerdy. Here's something I just posted to the course forum: "Do you mean Supergirl or Wonder Woman? Supergirl (Kara Zor-El) is the one from Krypton. Wonder Woman is the so-called Amazon. Superwoman only existed as a hallucination Lois Lane experienced in hospital." |
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I've just been reading a post on Zen Habits on how to cut your budget and beat the economic crisis. It has some sensible ideas, but I really don't think it goes far enough, so I'm sharing my own tips on how to "do more with less". Walk, don't driveWe all know cars are bad for the environment and your budget. Sell your car (if there's anyone who still has enough cash to buy it) and walk everywhere. OK, it might take you three hours to get to work in the morning but think how fit you will be! Walking barefoot is even better—shoes are a major drain on your finances (especially if you like Manola Blahnik) so rather than wearing them out, develop some fashionable calluses instead.Walk, don't flyCutting down on business and holiday travel is a great way to economise, but you don't have to give up your Wanderlust: walk round the world instead. OK, unless you live at one of the poles, that's impossible because of the oceans, so for your next holiday, walk to the end of whichever land mass you're on, then walk as far as you can in the opposite direction, then, if you are still alive and capable of walking, walk home. By the time you get back, the economic crisis will probably be over. Leave your children with relatives (or Social Services) while you do this; by the time you return, they will be grown up and will no longer be a drain on the family finances.Spend more time on the InternetIf the last suggestion seems to radical, just stay at home. If you can read this, you are probably paying for Internet access, so get the most out of your subscription. If you spend all your free time on-line, that means you won't be wasting money eating out, going to bars, watching movies and so forth. You'll probably spend less on food too, since you can just snack at the computer; you won't notice what you're eating, so you may as well eat the cheapest junk you can find.Sell stuff on e-bayWhile your spending all that time on-line, use it to de-clutter. With your new lifestyle, you don't need any more furniture than a computer desk, a chair and a bed, so sell the rest. I was also about to suggest selling those comics that have been sitting in boxes since the 1980s, but some sacrifices are too great even for these hard times.Sell your houseNow the housing market has collapsed, you probably won't get a lot for your home, but every little bit helps. If you finally get bored with the all-on-line lifestyle, you might consider living on the street like so many other Americans. When the economy finally takes an up-turn, your new mobile lifestyle will give you a competitive edge.Start a new businessIt may sound like madness to start a business in these cold economic climes, but remember that whatever the Dow Jones says, there is always a market for crack cocaine.RelocateSome countries still have functioning welfare systems. Consider stowing away on a ship. |
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